Playbook 17 · Forecasting & team health

How to use the optimisation algorithm to deliver a portfolio on time

The optimisation engine sequences the whole portfolio so the maximum number of commitments land on time, not just the loudest one.

Why it matters

Without it, portfolios get sequenced by who shouts loudest. With it, the system picks the sequence that lands the most value on time. It's the difference between "we shipped what was urgent" and "we shipped what mattered".

Step by step

  1. Make sure every epic has. A value, a size estimate, a target due date (where one exists), and a parent outcome.
  2. Pick a strategy. Deadline-first protects the dates that matter most (default). Value-first maximises £ delivered, accepts some slips. WSJF is weighted shortest job first; balanced.
  3. Run optimisation. Over the current quarter's epics. Output: per-epic suggested start/end, sprint range, hit-target probability, at-risk flags.
  4. Read the bottlenecks. Which epics are at risk? Which are blocking others? That's where leadership attention goes.
  5. Read the suggestions. Add capacity? Cut scope? Phase the release? Make the call.
  6. Re-run when reality shifts. Every time you hire, lose someone, change priorities, or finish a major epic.

What good looks like

  • Every epic has value, size, deadline (where applicable), parent outcome
  • Portfolio re-optimised at least monthly
  • Bottlenecks named and assigned
  • Suggestions actioned, not noted-and-ignored
  • Strategy choice (deadline / value / WSJF) deliberate, not default

How Tenhaw runs this

The Schedule Optimisation engine sequences your portfolio (WSJF, deadline-first, or value-first), runs Monte Carlo per epic, and returns suggested dates, hit-target probability, bottlenecks and concrete suggestions: add capacity, cut scope, phase the release. Quarterly Autopilot uses the same engine to cross-check proposed plans.

  • Tenhaw Schedule Optimisation engine
  • Tenhaw Quarterly Autopilot
  • Tenhaw portfolio dashboards
  • Tenhaw bottleneck analysis

Try this on the Tenhaw platform →

In Tenhaw → Quarterly Autopilot uses the same engine, that's how it cross-checks AI-proposed plans against real capacity.

Related playbooks

18How to run team health checks 16How to use Monte Carlo forecasting 1How to set an outcome 2How to put together a quarterly roadmap

Run this in your team

The Tenhaw product enforces every rule in this playbook so it doesn't sit on a wiki gathering dust. Try Tenhaw or book a working session with the founder.